Assessing the risk of invasion by a vineyard moth pest guild

Biological invasions are most effectively managed when identified in their early stages, which often hinges on robust surveillance programs. The recent invasion of the European grapevine moth ( Lobesia botrana ) California suggests that viticultural areas western United States may face severe economic consequences from this and other Tortricid Pyralid species if they were to establish. To gain insights into risk these pests pose, we used occurrence records for L. four moths native Europe or eastern selected environmental variables predict extent climatically suitable potential pest co-occurrence along West Coast States. A suite models was generated using MaxEnt with species-specific tuning model settings. Overall, results confirmed high suitability establish across much study region, driven largely by monthly variability precipitation low elevation. Two predicted have intermediate over region (i.e., grape tortrix moth, Argyrotaenia ljungiana ; berry Paralobesia viteana ), while two others had Eupoecilia ambiguella Christmas webworm, Cryptoblabes gnidiella ). highest between P. , accounting 19% total viticulture area, followed A. 11% area. These help optimization efforts indicating should be prioritized deployment invasive detection programs pheromone traps. Indeed, given apparent multiple certain areas, our inform where single multi-lure traps deployed as a more cost-efficient monitoring tool.